Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 60%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 ปริมาณ
$26,701 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
53%
>2.5% 60%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 ปริมาณ
$26,701 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 ปริมาณ
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 ปริมาณ
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 ปริมาณ
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 ปริมาณ
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 ปริมาณ
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 ปริมาณ
53%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,701วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,701วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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