The market assigns the highest probability (40.5%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting trader consensus on fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-related capital spending outweighing the soft Q1 start. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s May 28 second estimate showed Q1 growth at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised down from the 2.0% advance and up from 0.5% in Q4 2025, with contributions from exports, investment, and consumer spending offset by import growth. Recent forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including CBO and Vanguard projections, while elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects introduce downside risks that keep the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% buckets at 18.5% and 16.5%. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate on June 25 and further labor-market and inflation data that will shape the 2026 trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 40%
1.5–2.0% 18.5%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 12.6%
$29,103 ปริมาณ
$29,103 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
13%
1.5–2.0%
19%
2.0–2.5%
16%
>2.5%
40%
>2.5% 40%
1.5–2.0% 18.5%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 12.6%
$29,103 ปริมาณ
$29,103 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,942 ปริมาณ
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,364 ปริมาณ
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,867 ปริมาณ
13%
1.5–2.0%
$1,821 ปริมาณ
19%
2.0–2.5%
$1,963 ปริมาณ
16%
>2.5%
$4,146 ปริมาณ
40%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market assigns the highest probability (40.5%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting trader consensus on fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-related capital spending outweighing the soft Q1 start. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s May 28 second estimate showed Q1 growth at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised down from the 2.0% advance and up from 0.5% in Q4 2025, with contributions from exports, investment, and consumer spending offset by import growth. Recent forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including CBO and Vanguard projections, while elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects introduce downside risks that keep the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% buckets at 18.5% and 16.5%. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate on June 25 and further labor-market and inflation data that will shape the 2026 trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,103วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market assigns the highest probability (40.5%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting trader consensus on fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-related capital spending outweighing the soft Q1 start. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s May 28 second estimate showed Q1 growth at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised down from the 2.0% advance and up from 0.5% in Q4 2025, with contributions from exports, investment, and consumer spending offset by import growth. Recent forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including CBO and Vanguard projections, while elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects introduce downside risks that keep the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% buckets at 18.5% and 16.5%. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate on June 25 and further labor-market and inflation data that will shape the 2026 trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,103วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market assigns the highest probability (40.5%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting trader consensus on fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-related capital spending outweighing the soft Q1 start. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s May 28 second estimate showed Q1 growth at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised down from the 2.0% advance and up from 0.5% in Q4 2025, with contributions from exports, investment, and consumer spending offset by import growth. Recent forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including CBO and Vanguard projections, while elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects introduce downside risks that keep the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% buckets at 18.5% and 16.5%. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate on June 25 and further labor-market and inflation data that will shape the 2026 trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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