Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace from the initial 2.0% advance estimate, combined with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax provisions and AI-related capital spending, underpin the 40.5% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5%. Professional forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and Goldman Sachs cluster near 2.5–2.6%, while the CBO and University of Michigan project 2.2%, reflecting tariff drag and elevated inflation risks that cap the next-highest bracket at 18.1% for the 1.5–2.0% range. Geopolitical energy-price pressures and softening labor-market momentum introduce downside skew to lower outcomes, yet the wisdom-of-crowds pricing in Polymarket continues to embed modest optimism around productivity gains. The next FOMC projections and second-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 40%
1.5–2.0% 18.1%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 11.6%
$29,103 ปริมาณ
$29,103 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
16%
>2.5%
40%
>2.5% 40%
1.5–2.0% 18.1%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 11.6%
$29,103 ปริมาณ
$29,103 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,942 ปริมาณ
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,364 ปริมาณ
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,867 ปริมาณ
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,821 ปริมาณ
18%
2.0–2.5%
$1,963 ปริมาณ
16%
>2.5%
$4,146 ปริมาณ
40%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace from the initial 2.0% advance estimate, combined with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax provisions and AI-related capital spending, underpin the 40.5% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5%. Professional forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and Goldman Sachs cluster near 2.5–2.6%, while the CBO and University of Michigan project 2.2%, reflecting tariff drag and elevated inflation risks that cap the next-highest bracket at 18.1% for the 1.5–2.0% range. Geopolitical energy-price pressures and softening labor-market momentum introduce downside skew to lower outcomes, yet the wisdom-of-crowds pricing in Polymarket continues to embed modest optimism around productivity gains. The next FOMC projections and second-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,103วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace from the initial 2.0% advance estimate, combined with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax provisions and AI-related capital spending, underpin the 40.5% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5%. Professional forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and Goldman Sachs cluster near 2.5–2.6%, while the CBO and University of Michigan project 2.2%, reflecting tariff drag and elevated inflation risks that cap the next-highest bracket at 18.1% for the 1.5–2.0% range. Geopolitical energy-price pressures and softening labor-market momentum introduce downside skew to lower outcomes, yet the wisdom-of-crowds pricing in Polymarket continues to embed modest optimism around productivity gains. The next FOMC projections and second-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,103วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace from the initial 2.0% advance estimate, combined with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax provisions and AI-related capital spending, underpin the 40.5% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5%. Professional forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and Goldman Sachs cluster near 2.5–2.6%, while the CBO and University of Michigan project 2.2%, reflecting tariff drag and elevated inflation risks that cap the next-highest bracket at 18.1% for the 1.5–2.0% range. Geopolitical energy-price pressures and softening labor-market momentum introduce downside skew to lower outcomes, yet the wisdom-of-crowds pricing in Polymarket continues to embed modest optimism around productivity gains. The next FOMC projections and second-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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