The primary driver behind the 87% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upside surprise in euro-area inflation, which rose to 3.0% in April amid energy price surges triggered by the Middle East conflict. This has prompted Governing Council members to signal readiness for tightening to contain second-round effects, as reflected in the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% while highlighting intensified inflation risks and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts. Resilient labor market conditions and anchored longer-term expectations support the consensus for a measured 25 basis point move to 2.25%, with the 12% no-change pricing capturing data-dependency on incoming commodity and inflation prints before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 87%
No change 12.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,211 ปริมาณ
$349,211 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
25 bps Increase
87%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 87%
No change 12.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,211 ปริมาณ
$349,211 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$63,809 ปริมาณ
<1%
No change
$73,766 ปริมาณ
12%
25 bps Increase
$86,140 ปริมาณ
87%
50+ bps increase
$64,834 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The primary driver behind the 87% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upside surprise in euro-area inflation, which rose to 3.0% in April amid energy price surges triggered by the Middle East conflict. This has prompted Governing Council members to signal readiness for tightening to contain second-round effects, as reflected in the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% while highlighting intensified inflation risks and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts. Resilient labor market conditions and anchored longer-term expectations support the consensus for a measured 25 basis point move to 2.25%, with the 12% no-change pricing capturing data-dependency on incoming commodity and inflation prints before resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$349,211วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The primary driver behind the 87% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upside surprise in euro-area inflation, which rose to 3.0% in April amid energy price surges triggered by the Middle East conflict. This has prompted Governing Council members to signal readiness for tightening to contain second-round effects, as reflected in the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% while highlighting intensified inflation risks and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts. Resilient labor market conditions and anchored longer-term expectations support the consensus for a measured 25 basis point move to 2.25%, with the 12% no-change pricing capturing data-dependency on incoming commodity and inflation prints before resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$349,211วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary driver behind the 87% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upside surprise in euro-area inflation, which rose to 3.0% in April amid energy price surges triggered by the Middle East conflict. This has prompted Governing Council members to signal readiness for tightening to contain second-round effects, as reflected in the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% while highlighting intensified inflation risks and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts. Resilient labor market conditions and anchored longer-term expectations support the consensus for a measured 25 basis point move to 2.25%, with the 12% no-change pricing capturing data-dependency on incoming commodity and inflation prints before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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