Recent softer-than-expected August core PCE at 0.2% month-over-month—below the 0.3% consensus and revised lower by methodology updates—has tempered near-term inflation concerns while leaving the year-over-year rate at 3.0%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Strong August consumer spending of 0.9% and a hotter August CPI print underscore resilient demand and services pressures that could support a 0.3% or 0.4% September reading. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with the 0.3% outcome leading at 34.5% amid mixed signals from energy rebounds and transportation costs. Traders await the October 14 CPI release and October 29 PCE print for clearer direction ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting, where further policy tightening remains under discussion.