Recent polls ahead of Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election consistently placed the SPD at 10-13%, reflecting a sharp decline from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat vote amid dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD governing coalition on housing affordability and local services. The Linke surged to lead at around 21-23% by drawing left-leaning voters, while the CDU, AfD, and Greens held firmer positions in the mid-teens to low twenties. The confirmed result of 12.1% locked in the 10-13% outcome. A major recount or widespread irregularities could still shift the final tally, though such developments remain improbable given the margin and reporting.