**A snap election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026 remains unlikely, with traders pricing the “No” outcome at 84.5%.** The state held its regular Landtag election on 6 September 2026, returning the AfD as the largest party with 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats—three short of an absolute majority. The new parliament convened on 6 October, electing an AfD speaker with some cross-party support, while the outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP caretaker government continues in office. Efforts now focus on the December Minister-President vote for AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund, amid ongoing coalition talks, BSW positioning, and a maintained firewall by other parties that has produced deadlock rather than dissolution. No major actor has proposed or triggered parliamentary dissolution under the state constitution, and recent procedural maneuvers (including CDU walkouts and abstention signals) center on government formation, not early elections. With the regular term running until 2031 and formation talks still active, traders see little basis for a snap poll before year-end.