Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released around May 8, place April 2026's global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline—firmly within the 1.15–1.19°C bin commanding 94.9% market-implied probability. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 observations ranking it as the joint third-warmest April on record (0.52°C above 1991-2020, translating to similar positioning after baseline adjustment), amid a transitioning La Niña that tempered extremes after 2024-2025 El Niño peaks. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with forecast models and historical April variability, where anomalies rarely exceed 1.2°C under neutral-to-cool ENSO. Final NOAA revisions (typically ±0.03°C) or discrepancies in datasets like Berkeley Earth could challenge this, with updates expected imminently; a shift to 1.20°C+ would require upward observational adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 94.8%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,019 ปริมาณ
$350,019 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
95%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 94.8%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,019 ปริมาณ
$350,019 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,218 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,409 ปริมาณ
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,791 ปริมาณ
95%
1.20–1.24ºC
$69,341 ปริมาณ
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,520 ปริมาณ
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,741 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released around May 8, place April 2026's global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline—firmly within the 1.15–1.19°C bin commanding 94.9% market-implied probability. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 observations ranking it as the joint third-warmest April on record (0.52°C above 1991-2020, translating to similar positioning after baseline adjustment), amid a transitioning La Niña that tempered extremes after 2024-2025 El Niño peaks. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with forecast models and historical April variability, where anomalies rarely exceed 1.2°C under neutral-to-cool ENSO. Final NOAA revisions (typically ±0.03°C) or discrepancies in datasets like Berkeley Earth could challenge this, with updates expected imminently; a shift to 1.20°C+ would require upward observational adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$350,019วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released around May 8, place April 2026's global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline—firmly within the 1.15–1.19°C bin commanding 94.9% market-implied probability. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 observations ranking it as the joint third-warmest April on record (0.52°C above 1991-2020, translating to similar positioning after baseline adjustment), amid a transitioning La Niña that tempered extremes after 2024-2025 El Niño peaks. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with forecast models and historical April variability, where anomalies rarely exceed 1.2°C under neutral-to-cool ENSO. Final NOAA revisions (typically ±0.03°C) or discrepancies in datasets like Berkeley Earth could challenge this, with updates expected imminently; a shift to 1.20°C+ would require upward observational adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$350,019วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released around May 8, place April 2026's global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline—firmly within the 1.15–1.19°C bin commanding 94.9% market-implied probability. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 observations ranking it as the joint third-warmest April on record (0.52°C above 1991-2020, translating to similar positioning after baseline adjustment), amid a transitioning La Niña that tempered extremes after 2024-2025 El Niño peaks. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with forecast models and historical April variability, where anomalies rarely exceed 1.2°C under neutral-to-cool ENSO. Final NOAA revisions (typically ±0.03°C) or discrepancies in datasets like Berkeley Earth could challenge this, with updates expected imminently; a shift to 1.20°C+ would require upward observational adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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