Canada's 2025 federal election produced a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney, which later secured a majority through by-elections and floor crossings by April 2026. The next fixed-date election is scheduled for October 15, 2029, though the prime minister may advise dissolution earlier. With a stable majority and recent polling showing Liberal support well ahead of the Conservatives, the incentive for a snap election remains low absent a sudden shift in parliamentary dynamics or external pressures. Traders price early calls as unlikely because majority governments historically complete full terms unless facing no-confidence risks or strategic openings before the statutory deadline. Upcoming provincial contests and by-elections could indirectly influence federal timing considerations but have not altered the current outlook.