Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced from the October 4 first round as the clear leader with 40.63% of valid votes across Amazonas, well ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.49% and Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) at 21.91%, sending the contest to the October 25 runoff. Aziz’s broad coalition spanning PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and elements of the PT-aligned bloc, combined with his prior service as governor and senator, underpins the trader consensus reflected in elevated implied probability for his victory. Maria do Carmo’s narrower PL base and limited municipal wins have kept her market share subdued, while trailing candidates remain at negligible levels absent any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns.