Scottie Scheffler holds the highest implied probability at 13.5% as the world number one and most consistent major performer entering the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, though his season includes just one victory and mixed recent results that have tempered expectations for a career Grand Slam. The tightly bunched probabilities across the rest of the field stem from the event's demanding setup on a historic, penal course that rewards elite ball-striking and course management over raw power, creating realistic paths for players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele who bring strong recent major form or prior success on similar tests. No dominant favorite has emerged because the U.S. Open historically produces varied winners amid shifting conditions and the depth of the PGA Tour roster.
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