US-Iran tensions remain elevated amid ongoing proxy conflicts, including Iran-backed militia attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, prompting recent US airstrikes on those groups, but no formal congressional war declaration—the constitutionally required step under Article I, Section 8, last used in 1942—has advanced. Incoming President Trump's campaign rhetoric emphasized "maximum pressure" sanctions and potential military action against Iran's nuclear program without endorsing declaration, while Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian military sites elicited minimal retaliation, signaling de-escalation. Traders price low odds reflecting institutional barriers, historical precedent of executive-led responses via existing AUMFs, and focus on diplomacy; key risks include major Iranian provocation or nuclear breakthrough before the market's resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
Будут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
$4,153,578 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
31 марта
<1%
30 апреля
1%
31 декабря
9%
$4,153,578 Объем
31 марта
$3,855,179 Объем
<1%
30 апреля
$14,065 Объем
1%
31 декабря
$293,392 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Объем
$4,153,578Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$4,153,578Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions remain elevated amid ongoing proxy conflicts, including Iran-backed militia attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, prompting recent US airstrikes on those groups, but no formal congressional war declaration—the constitutionally required step under Article I, Section 8, last used in 1942—has advanced. Incoming President Trump's campaign rhetoric emphasized "maximum pressure" sanctions and potential military action against Iran's nuclear program without endorsing declaration, while Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian military sites elicited minimal retaliation, signaling de-escalation. Traders price low odds reflecting institutional barriers, historical precedent of executive-led responses via existing AUMFs, and focus on diplomacy; key risks include major Iranian provocation or nuclear breakthrough before the market's resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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