Russian forces launched offensive operations near Ternuvate, a small settlement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on March 25-27, 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), marking intensified efforts to re-enter the village following Ukrainian liberation in early February after a brief Russian incursion. Ukrainian defenses have maintained control through regular sweeps, FPV drone kill zones, and fortified positions along the Haichur River and barbed wire lines east of Dobropillia, repelling repeated infantry infiltrations despite recent drone strikes on Ukrainian vehicles north of Ternuvate. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of Russian re-entry by late March or April deadlines, anchored in ISW maps showing no confirmed territorial gains, amid broader Zaporizhzhia frontline stalemate with no major escalations scheduled. Unverified claims of advances persist, but visual evidence supports Ukrainian hold, subject to rapid shifts from troop reinforcements or aid flows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудет ли Россия снова входить в Тернуват...?
Будет ли Россия снова входить в Тернуват...?
$298,429 Объем
31 марта
9%
30 апреля
31%
$298,429 Объем
31 марта
9%
30 апреля
31%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 23, 2026, 8:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces launched offensive operations near Ternuvate, a small settlement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on March 25-27, 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), marking intensified efforts to re-enter the village following Ukrainian liberation in early February after a brief Russian incursion. Ukrainian defenses have maintained control through regular sweeps, FPV drone kill zones, and fortified positions along the Haichur River and barbed wire lines east of Dobropillia, repelling repeated infantry infiltrations despite recent drone strikes on Ukrainian vehicles north of Ternuvate. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of Russian re-entry by late March or April deadlines, anchored in ISW maps showing no confirmed territorial gains, amid broader Zaporizhzhia frontline stalemate with no major escalations scheduled. Unverified claims of advances persist, but visual evidence supports Ukrainian hold, subject to rapid shifts from troop reinforcements or aid flows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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