Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЛори Чавес-ДеРемер 57%
Пит Хегсет 11.5%
Тулси Габбард 10.8%
Никто до 2027 года 6.3%
$1,858,650 Объем
$1,858,650 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Лори Чавес-ДеРемер
57%
Пит Хегсет
12%
Тулси Габбард
11%
Никто до 2027 года
6%
Майк Уолтц
2%
Скотт Бессент
2%
Брук Роллинс
1%
Дж.Д. Вэнс
1%
Ли Зелдин
1%
Шон Даффи
1%
Пэм Бонди
1%
Роберт Ф. Кеннеди мл.
1%
Говард Латник
1%
Линда Макмахон
1%
Скотт Тёрнер
1%
Сьюзи Уайлс
1%
Рассел Т. Воут
1%
Джон Рэтклифф
1%
Марко Рубио
1%
Крис Райт
1%
Келли Лёфлер
<1%
Джеймисон Грир
<1%
Дуг Коллинз
<1%
Даг Бёргум
<1%
Лори Чавес-ДеРемер 57%
Пит Хегсет 11.5%
Тулси Габбард 10.8%
Никто до 2027 года 6.3%
$1,858,650 Объем
$1,858,650 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Лори Чавес-ДеРемер
$73,286 Объем
57%
Пит Хегсет
$468,468 Объем
12%
Тулси Габбард
$693,910 Объем
11%
Никто до 2027 года
$329,601 Объем
6%
Майк Уолтц
$4,298 Объем
2%
Скотт Бессент
$4,568 Объем
2%
Брук Роллинс
$6,671 Объем
1%
Дж.Д. Вэнс
$7,171 Объем
1%
Ли Зелдин
$70,392 Объем
1%
Шон Даффи
$67,124 Объем
1%
Пэм Бонди
$4,020 Объем
1%
Роберт Ф. Кеннеди мл.
$3,560 Объем
1%
Говард Латник
$26,071 Объем
1%
Линда Макмахон
$9,812 Объем
1%
Скотт Тёрнер
$5,472 Объем
1%
Сьюзи Уайлс
$4,750 Объем
1%
Рассел Т. Воут
$3,976 Объем
1%
Джон Рэтклифф
$3,998 Объем
1%
Марко Рубио
$50,374 Объем
1%
Крис Райт
$3,869 Объем
1%
Келли Лёфлер
$3,705 Объем
<1%
Джеймисон Грир
$4,507 Объем
<1%
Дуг Коллинз
$3,258 Объем
<1%
Даг Бёргум
$5,787 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Объем
$1,858,650Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$1,858,650Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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