U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a new 60-day ceasefire framework in early October 2026 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and suspend blockades, following the partial collapse of a June memorandum of understanding that had extended an April truce. President Trump has kept U.S. forces positioned in the region with warnings of renewed strikes if commitments falter, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard maintains influence over enforcement and demands sanctions relief plus asset access. An Israeli strike on Beirut briefly delayed finalization but prompted additional U.S. concessions to secure the deal, which is slated for formal signing in Geneva later in October. Traders assess continuity risks around compliance sequencing, proxy activity in Lebanon, and any escalation from Israeli operations, with the agreement hinging on immediate traffic resumption and phased economic measures.