The substantial debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, creating significant headroom above current outstanding debt levels projected to extend well into 2027. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the limit ahead of potential breaches, employing extraordinary measures as a temporary bridge when needed, and both parties maintain strong institutional incentives to prevent any interruption in Treasury payments on existing obligations. Recent projections from the Congressional Budget Office incorporate assumptions of timely adjustments, aligning with this established pattern of legislative action. Trader consensus at 95 percent against default by 2027 reflects these structural buffers and the consistent historical record of avoiding such outcomes through appropriations and limit modifications.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Дефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Да
$15,053 Объем
$15,053 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$15,053 Объем
$15,053 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, creating significant headroom above current outstanding debt levels projected to extend well into 2027. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the limit ahead of potential breaches, employing extraordinary measures as a temporary bridge when needed, and both parties maintain strong institutional incentives to prevent any interruption in Treasury payments on existing obligations. Recent projections from the Congressional Budget Office incorporate assumptions of timely adjustments, aligning with this established pattern of legislative action. Trader consensus at 95 percent against default by 2027 reflects these structural buffers and the consistent historical record of avoiding such outcomes through appropriations and limit modifications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$15,053Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, creating significant headroom above current outstanding debt levels projected to extend well into 2027. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the limit ahead of potential breaches, employing extraordinary measures as a temporary bridge when needed, and both parties maintain strong institutional incentives to prevent any interruption in Treasury payments on existing obligations. Recent projections from the Congressional Budget Office incorporate assumptions of timely adjustments, aligning with this established pattern of legislative action. Trader consensus at 95 percent against default by 2027 reflects these structural buffers and the consistent historical record of avoiding such outcomes through appropriations and limit modifications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$15,053Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The substantial debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, creating significant headroom above current outstanding debt levels projected to extend well into 2027. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the limit ahead of potential breaches, employing extraordinary measures as a temporary bridge when needed, and both parties maintain strong institutional incentives to prevent any interruption in Treasury payments on existing obligations. Recent projections from the Congressional Budget Office incorporate assumptions of timely adjustments, aligning with this established pattern of legislative action. Trader consensus at 95 percent against default by 2027 reflects these structural buffers and the consistent historical record of avoiding such outcomes through appropriations and limit modifications.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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