**Strong scientific consensus around observed and modeled September 2026 global surface temperature anomalies supports the market's heavy weighting toward the 1.35–1.39°C bin.** Preliminary ERA5 and related analyses indicate September ranked as the second-warmest on record, driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus residual El Niño influences that elevated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content. Official agencies such as Copernicus, NOAA, and NASA typically finalize monthly anomalies within narrow ranges after quality-controlled processing, aligning trader expectations with the central estimate near 1.37°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Realistic challenges include late-stage dataset revisions, differences between surface and lower-troposphere metrics, or shifts in how pre-industrial baselines are applied, though historical revisions have rarely moved values outside the dominant bin once preliminary figures stabilize. Upcoming full monthly bulletins will provide the definitive resolution data.