Name: RFK Jr. popular vote share?
Start: 2024-08-13T16:24:56.545116Z
End: 2024-11-05T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 4% (inclusive) and 5% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

4-5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 5% (inclusive) and 6% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

5-6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 6% (inclusive) and 7% (inclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

6-7%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives more than 7% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 1% (inclusive) and 2% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

1-2%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 2% (inclusive) and 3% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

2-3%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 3% (inclusive) and 4% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

3-4%

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы гонку за пост губернатора Канзаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы выборы в Сенат в Канзасе в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Томас Мэсси кандидатом от республиканцев по округу KY-04?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп JD Вэнса на пост президента до 2027 года?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Выиграет ли Джефф Кольер праймериз Республиканской партии на выборах губернатора Канзаса 2026 года?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas.

If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Будет ли Кристи Дэвис кандидатом в сенаторы от демократов в Канзасе?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Джек Эллисон республиканским кандидатом от SC-01?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Будет ли Дэниел Кэмерон кандидатом в Сенат от республиканцев в Кентукки?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы выборы в Сенат Кентукки в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли демократы выборы в сенат Род-Айленда в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы сенатские выборы в Арканзасе в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли демократы выборы в Сенат Вирджинии в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Выиграет ли Итэн Корсон праймериз Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Канзаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Выиграет ли Джей Ди Вэнс номинацию кандидата в президенты от Республиканской партии на выборах 2028 года?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп Стива Хилтона на выборах губернатора Калифорнии 2 ноября 2026 года по восточному времени?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Будет ли Рэймонд МакКэй кандидатом в сенат от Республиканской партии в Род-Айленде?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Станет ли Дэвид Уильямс кандидатом в Сенат от республиканцев в Виргинии?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Займет ли Джон Корнин второе место на праймериз Республиканской партии Техаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Мэдисон Котторн кандидатом от Республиканской партии по округу FL-19?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Поддержит ли Берни Дэна Осборна на выборах в Сенат от Небраски до 2 ноября 2026 года по восточному времени?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the vote share João Cotrim de Figueiredo wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by João Cotrim de Figueiredo.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Получит ли Жоау Котрим де Фигейреду от 16% до 18% голосов в первом туре?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Джастин Стори кандидатом в Республиканской партии по округу FL-09?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Будет ли Джоэл Уиллетт кандидатом от Демократической партии в Сенат в Кентукки?

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
 
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the second round of the Portuguese Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Выиграет ли Антониу Жозе Сегуру второй тур с отрывом в 20–30%?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Победят ли демократы на выборах в Сенат Нью-Джерси в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы выборы в Сенат в Западной Вирджинии в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли демократы губернаторские выборы на Род-Айленде в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Будет ли Джек Рид кандидатом от Демократической партии в Сенат от Род-Айленда?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп какого-либо кандидата в президенты до 2027 года?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Будет ли Шелли Мур Капито кандидатом в Сенат от республиканцев в Западной Вирджинии?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Бринкер Хардинг кандидатом в Конгресс США от республиканцев по округу NE-02?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Джо Митчелл республиканским кандидатом от округа IA-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли демократы гонку за пост губернатора Мэриленда в 2026 году?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Выиграет ли Гавин Ньюсом номинацию кандидата от Демократической партии на пост президента на выборах 2028 года?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Займёт ли Уэсли Хант третье место на праймериз Республиканской партии Техаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.

If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Проголосуют ли 50 сенаторов «за» кандидатуру Трампа на пост главы ФРС?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-22?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы гонку за пост губернатора Арканзаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по 18-му округу штата Нью-Йорк?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Пол Лепейдж республиканским кандидатом по округу ME-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли демократы гонку за пост губернатора Нью-Йорка в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-04?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Республиканская партия выиграет место в Палате представителей от округа NJ-07?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Выиграет ли Джей Ди Ванс на президентских выборах США в 2028 году?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

<1%
$1,268,661 Объем
Yes

1-2%
$194,065 Объем
No

2-3%
$216,235 Объем
No

3-4%
$282,159 Объем
No

4-5%
$288,169 Объем
No

5-6%
$2,924,891 Объем
No

6-7%
$800,081 Объем
No

>7%
$334,236 Объем
No

Контекст Рынка

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

Правила

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

Контекст Рынка

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

О событии

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

<1%$1,268,661 ОбъемYes

1-2%$194,065 ОбъемNo

2-3%$216,235 ОбъемNo

3-4%$282,159 ОбъемNo

4-5%$288,169 ОбъемNo

5-6%$2,924,891 ОбъемNo

6-7%$800,081 ОбъемNo

>7%$334,236 ОбъемNo

Контекст Рынка

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

Правила

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

Контекст Рынка

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

О событии

<1%
$1,268,661 Объем
Yes

1-2%
$194,065 Объем
No

2-3%
$216,235 Объем
No

3-4%
$282,159 Объем
No

4-5%
$288,169 Объем
No

5-6%
$2,924,891 Объем
No

6-7%
$800,081 Объем
No

>7%
$334,236 Объем
No