Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or arrest warrant against the former president despite ongoing DOJ grand jury probes into Obama-era intelligence officials like James Comey, James Clapper, and John Brennan over the 2016 Russia interference assessment. Recent declassifications by DNI Tulsi Gabbard and new subpoenas issued in February 2026 have fueled speculation, alongside President Trump's February calls for accountability, but legal experts highlight insufficient evidence of criminal acts by Obama himself and significant barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief. No major developments have emerged in the past month to shift this dynamic, underscoring the high evidentiary threshold required.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or arrest warrant against the former president despite ongoing DOJ grand jury probes into Obama-era intelligence officials like James Comey, James Clapper, and John Brennan over the 2016 Russia interference assessment. Recent declassifications by DNI Tulsi Gabbard and new subpoenas issued in February 2026 have fueled speculation, alongside President Trump's February calls for accountability, but legal experts highlight insufficient evidence of criminal acts by Obama himself and significant barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief. No major developments have emerged in the past month to shift this dynamic, underscoring the high evidentiary threshold required.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or arrest warrant against the former president despite ongoing DOJ grand jury probes into Obama-era intelligence officials like James Comey, James Clapper, and John Brennan over the 2016 Russia interference assessment. Recent declassifications by DNI Tulsi Gabbard and new subpoenas issued in February 2026 have fueled speculation, alongside President Trump's February calls for accountability, but legal experts highlight insufficient evidence of criminal acts by Obama himself and significant barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief. No major developments have emerged in the past month to shift this dynamic, underscoring the high evidentiary threshold required.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or arrest warrant against the former president despite ongoing DOJ grand jury probes into Obama-era intelligence officials like James Comey, James Clapper, and John Brennan over the 2016 Russia interference assessment. Recent declassifications by DNI Tulsi Gabbard and new subpoenas issued in February 2026 have fueled speculation, alongside President Trump's February calls for accountability, but legal experts highlight insufficient evidence of criminal acts by Obama himself and significant barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief. No major developments have emerged in the past month to shift this dynamic, underscoring the high evidentiary threshold required.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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