Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, over three months after his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela amid charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and collaboration with cartels that carry potential life sentences. He and wife Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty at their January 5 New York arraignment, with a March 26 hearing rejecting motions to dismiss amid legal fee disputes. Trader consensus reflects low release odds due to the case's procedural momentum and U.S. recognition of Venezuela's interim leadership under acting President Delcy Rodríguez—evidenced by recent sanctions relief—diminishing diplomatic pressures for extradition or pardon. Upcoming trial scheduling or appeals could influence timelines, though historical patterns favor prolonged detention for such indictments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$2,590,437 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
31 декабря
15%
$2,590,437 Объем
31 декабря
$194,988 Объем
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, over three months after his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela amid charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and collaboration with cartels that carry potential life sentences. He and wife Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty at their January 5 New York arraignment, with a March 26 hearing rejecting motions to dismiss amid legal fee disputes. Trader consensus reflects low release odds due to the case's procedural momentum and U.S. recognition of Venezuela's interim leadership under acting President Delcy Rodríguez—evidenced by recent sanctions relief—diminishing diplomatic pressures for extradition or pardon. Upcoming trial scheduling or appeals could influence timelines, though historical patterns favor prolonged detention for such indictments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 3, 2026, 8:44 AM ET
Объем
$2,590,437Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 3, 2026, 8:44 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, over three months after his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela amid charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and collaboration with cartels that carry potential life sentences. He and wife Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty at their January 5 New York arraignment, with a March 26 hearing rejecting motions to dismiss amid legal fee disputes. Trader consensus reflects low release odds due to the case's procedural momentum and U.S. recognition of Venezuela's interim leadership under acting President Delcy Rodríguez—evidenced by recent sanctions relief—diminishing diplomatic pressures for extradition or pardon. Upcoming trial scheduling or appeals could influence timelines, though historical patterns favor prolonged detention for such indictments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,590,437Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 3, 2026, 8:44 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, over three months after his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela amid charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and collaboration with cartels that carry potential life sentences. He and wife Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty at their January 5 New York arraignment, with a March 26 hearing rejecting motions to dismiss amid legal fee disputes. Trader consensus reflects low release odds due to the case's procedural momentum and U.S. recognition of Venezuela's interim leadership under acting President Delcy Rodríguez—evidenced by recent sanctions relief—diminishing diplomatic pressures for extradition or pardon. Upcoming trial scheduling or appeals could influence timelines, though historical patterns favor prolonged detention for such indictments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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