Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$410–$420 100.0%
<$370 <1%
$370–$380 <1%
$380–$390 <1%
$2,430 Объем
$2,430 Объем
<$370
Нет
$370–$380
Нет
$380–$390
Нет
$390–$400
Нет
$400–$410
Нет
$410–$420
Да
$420-$430
Нет
$430–$440
Нет
$440-$450
Нет
$450–$460
Нет
>$460
Нет
$410–$420 100.0%
<$370 <1%
$370–$380 <1%
$380–$390 <1%
$2,430 Объем
$2,430 Объем
<$370
Нет
$370–$380
Нет
$380–$390
Нет
$390–$400
Нет
$400–$410
Нет
$410–$420
Да
$420-$430
Нет
$430–$440
Нет
$440-$450
Нет
$450–$460
Нет
>$460
Нет
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Источник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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