Name: Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)
Start: 2025-12-29T22:05:28.070715Z
End: 2026-02-10T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

1,15–1,19ºC

<1,00ºC

1,10–1,14ºC

1,00–1,04ºC

1,05–1,09ºC

>1,19°C

Повышение температуры

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for February 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for February 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2025 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

February 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This is a market group over the temperature increase recorded for January 2025.

January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2024.

December 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024.

November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for March 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

March 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for April 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for April 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2025 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

April 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

October 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for December 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for December 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Повышение температуры в декабре 2025 года (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Central Park, New York City in January 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "NY-Central Park Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized all the days of January. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC in January?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/1)


Будет ли медианная стоимость жилья в Нью-Йорке находиться в диапазоне от $580 000 до $590 000 к 1 февраля?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/3)


Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

<1,00ºC
$31,489 Объем
2%

1,00–1,04ºC
$87,400 Объем
6%

1,05–1,09ºC
$58,827 Объем
42%

1,10–1,14ºC
$40,918 Объем
37%

1,15–1,19ºC
$53,319 Объем
12%

>1,19°C
$126,435 Объем
2%

Контекст Рынка

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

Правила

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

Контекст Рынка

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

О событии

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

<1,00ºC$31,489 Объем2%Купить Да1.7¢Купить Нет98.6¢

1,00–1,04ºC$87,400 Объем6%Купить Да6.9¢Купить Нет95.8¢

1,05–1,09ºC$58,827 Объем42%Купить Да43¢Купить Нет59¢

1,10–1,14ºC$40,918 Объем37%Купить Да39¢Купить Нет65¢

1,15–1,19ºC$53,319 Объем12%Купить Да13¢Купить Нет90¢

>1,19°C$126,435 Объем2%Купить Да2.6¢Купить Нет97.8¢

Контекст Рынка

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

Правила

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

Контекст Рынка

Повышение температуры в январе 2026 года (ºC)

О событии

<1,00ºC
$31,489 Объем
2%

1,00–1,04ºC
$87,400 Объем
6%

1,05–1,09ºC
$58,827 Объем
42%

1,10–1,14ºC
$40,918 Объем
37%

1,15–1,19ºC
$53,319 Объем
12%

>1,19°C
$126,435 Объем
2%