Recent polling from Pew and others shows Republican candidates drawing 7-8% support among Black voters for the 2026 midterms, with Democratic preferences near 70% and sizable undecided shares, reflecting a partial reversal of 2024 gains. Economic concerns, lower Trump approval ratings in this demographic, and enthusiasm gaps have contributed to softening momentum since the prior cycle, though some surveys note continued modest shifts among subgroups like Black men. These patterns, combined with historical base rates typically below 15%, underpin the market's tight clustering around the 8-13% range as traders weigh turnout variability and potential late-cycle economic or campaign developments that could widen or narrow the spread.