Geopolitical supply disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz closure and associated Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day remain the dominant driver of WTI crude oil prices, which have traded near $96–$100 per barrel in May 2026. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects an average 8.5 million barrel-per-day global inventory draw in the second quarter, supporting elevated levels through June amid strong refinery utilization. Downward revisions to 2026 demand growth and ongoing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations introduce downside risks, with market participants watching for any resumption of Hormuz traffic or OPEC+ adjustments that could accelerate the anticipated price decline into the second half of the year. These factors underpin the 64% market-implied probability assigned to settlement above $84.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНа что будет рассчитана цена на сырую нефть (CL) в июне?
>$84 64%
$77-$84 22%
$70–$77 9.0%
$63-$70 3.5%
$198,860 Объем
$198,860 Объем
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56–$63
1%
$63-$70
4%
$70–$77
9%
$77-$84
22%
>$84
64%
>$84 64%
$77-$84 22%
$70–$77 9.0%
$63-$70 3.5%
$198,860 Объем
$198,860 Объем
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56–$63
1%
$63-$70
4%
$70–$77
9%
$77-$84
22%
>$84
64%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Открытие рынка: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz closure and associated Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day remain the dominant driver of WTI crude oil prices, which have traded near $96–$100 per barrel in May 2026. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects an average 8.5 million barrel-per-day global inventory draw in the second quarter, supporting elevated levels through June amid strong refinery utilization. Downward revisions to 2026 demand growth and ongoing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations introduce downside risks, with market participants watching for any resumption of Hormuz traffic or OPEC+ adjustments that could accelerate the anticipated price decline into the second half of the year. These factors underpin the 64% market-implied probability assigned to settlement above $84.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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