Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability against a full ChatGPT outage by April 10, driven by OpenAI's robust service reliability, with 99.86% uptime for ChatGPT components from January to April 2026 per the official status page. Recent developments include only minor partial disruptions, such as elevated error rates in ChatGPT Dictation on April 2 and SSO issues for Enterprise workspaces on March 31, both swiftly resolved without widespread impact. This track record of quick mitigations amid scaling large language model demands underpins the strong "No" positioning. Realistic challenges include unforeseen infrastructure overload from traffic spikes, dependency failures like past Cloudflare incidents, or cyber threats, though OpenAI's redundancy measures have historically prevented prolonged downtime.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 апр. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability against a full ChatGPT outage by April 10, driven by OpenAI's robust service reliability, with 99.86% uptime for ChatGPT components from January to April 2026 per the official status page. Recent developments include only minor partial disruptions, such as elevated error rates in ChatGPT Dictation on April 2 and SSO issues for Enterprise workspaces on March 31, both swiftly resolved without widespread impact. This track record of quick mitigations amid scaling large language model demands underpins the strong "No" positioning. Realistic challenges include unforeseen infrastructure overload from traffic spikes, dependency failures like past Cloudflare incidents, or cyber threats, though OpenAI's redundancy measures have historically prevented prolonged downtime.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Объем
$1,279Дата окончания
10 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability against a full ChatGPT outage by April 10, driven by OpenAI's robust service reliability, with 99.86% uptime for ChatGPT components from January to April 2026 per the official status page. Recent developments include only minor partial disruptions, such as elevated error rates in ChatGPT Dictation on April 2 and SSO issues for Enterprise workspaces on March 31, both swiftly resolved without widespread impact. This track record of quick mitigations amid scaling large language model demands underpins the strong "No" positioning. Realistic challenges include unforeseen infrastructure overload from traffic spikes, dependency failures like past Cloudflare incidents, or cyber threats, though OpenAI's redundancy measures have historically prevented prolonged downtime.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,279Дата окончания
10 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability against a full ChatGPT outage by April 10, driven by OpenAI's robust service reliability, with 99.86% uptime for ChatGPT components from January to April 2026 per the official status page. Recent developments include only minor partial disruptions, such as elevated error rates in ChatGPT Dictation on April 2 and SSO issues for Enterprise workspaces on March 31, both swiftly resolved without widespread impact. This track record of quick mitigations amid scaling large language model demands underpins the strong "No" positioning. Realistic challenges include unforeseen infrastructure overload from traffic spikes, dependency failures like past Cloudflare incidents, or cyber threats, though OpenAI's redundancy measures have historically prevented prolonged downtime.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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