Trader consensus favors no repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions before 2027 at 72.5% implied probability, driven by stagnant legislative progress amid competing fiscal priorities in a divided Congress. The House Ways and Means Committee advanced TCJA extension proposals in recent months without addressing gambling deductions, while Senate Finance Committee action remains stalled. No standalone bills targeting Section 165(d) limitations have gained traction, reflecting low whip counts and focus on debt ceiling negotiations, government funding, and broader tax reforms expiring end-2025. Post-election lame duck session offers a narrow window, but historical patterns show niche policy changes rarely succeed without bipartisan support or industry lobbying breakthroughs, keeping repeal odds low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$62,422 Объем
$62,422 Объем
Да
$62,422 Объем
$62,422 Объем
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions before 2027 at 72.5% implied probability, driven by stagnant legislative progress amid competing fiscal priorities in a divided Congress. The House Ways and Means Committee advanced TCJA extension proposals in recent months without addressing gambling deductions, while Senate Finance Committee action remains stalled. No standalone bills targeting Section 165(d) limitations have gained traction, reflecting low whip counts and focus on debt ceiling negotiations, government funding, and broader tax reforms expiring end-2025. Post-election lame duck session offers a narrow window, but historical patterns show niche policy changes rarely succeed without bipartisan support or industry lobbying breakthroughs, keeping repeal odds low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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