Recent USDA Ag in Drought data place roughly 22% of U.S. hog inventory in moderate or worse drought (D1+) areas as of early October 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 15–24% outcome. This figure derives from U.S. Drought Monitor maps weighted by state-level hog production densities from NASS census data, with major concentrations in the Midwest showing limited overlap with persistent D2–D4 zones. Recent heavy rainfall from Hurricane Polo remnants improved conditions across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the Southeast, while the Lower Mississippi Basin saw localized worsening. Overall national drought coverage declined to about 46% in the latest week, supporting trader consensus around the current narrow band ahead of the next USDM update for the October 13 period.