Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by maintaining the No. 1 FIFA ranking after dominant March qualifiers and Nations League performances showcasing their fluid attacking play led by young stars like Yamal and Williams—despite the latter's recent injury concern. The race remains tightly contested among fellow top-ranked sides, with Argentina (No. 2) leveraging defending champion pedigree and Messi's potential farewell, France (No. 3) relying on depth despite Kamara's absence, and England (No. 4) building momentum in UEFA playoffs. An expanded 48-team field, grueling group stage draws, and ongoing intercontinental playoff finals through March 31 introduce upset potential, reflecting the parity among European and South American powerhouses with strong recent form and historical knockout prowess.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 11.1%
Аргентина 9.8%
$426,473,140 Объем
$426,473,140 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Мексика
1%
Хорватия
1%
Швейцария
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Иран
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Испания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 11.1%
Аргентина 9.8%
$426,473,140 Объем
$426,473,140 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Мексика
1%
Хорватия
1%
Швейцария
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Иран
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by maintaining the No. 1 FIFA ranking after dominant March qualifiers and Nations League performances showcasing their fluid attacking play led by young stars like Yamal and Williams—despite the latter's recent injury concern. The race remains tightly contested among fellow top-ranked sides, with Argentina (No. 2) leveraging defending champion pedigree and Messi's potential farewell, France (No. 3) relying on depth despite Kamara's absence, and England (No. 4) building momentum in UEFA playoffs. An expanded 48-team field, grueling group stage draws, and ongoing intercontinental playoff finals through March 31 introduce upset potential, reflecting the parity among European and South American powerhouses with strong recent form and historical knockout prowess.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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