Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph and recent friendlies including a 3-0 win over Serbia and a 0-0 draw with Egypt, showcasing defensive solidity from their golden generation led by Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France (12.6%) and England (12.4%) trail closely after France's gritty 2-1 victory over slumping Brazil—despite playing a man down—and England's 1-1 stalemate with Uruguay, highlighting the depth and resilience keeping this race bunched. With all favorites qualified post-March playoffs, favorable group draws, and Brazil's poor form (third loss in six), the 48-team field amplifies competitive dynamics among Europe's powerhouses and South American contenders like Argentina.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 16.4%
Франция 12.6%
Англия 12.4%
Аргентина 9.4%
$450,682,217 Объем
$450,682,217 Объем
Испания
16%
Франция
13%
Англия
12%
Аргентина
9%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Япония
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Швейцария
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Швеция
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Египет
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Иран
<1%
Панама
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Испания 16.4%
Франция 12.6%
Англия 12.4%
Аргентина 9.4%
$450,682,217 Объем
$450,682,217 Объем
Испания
16%
Франция
13%
Англия
12%
Аргентина
9%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Япония
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Швейцария
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Швеция
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Египет
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Иран
<1%
Панама
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph and recent friendlies including a 3-0 win over Serbia and a 0-0 draw with Egypt, showcasing defensive solidity from their golden generation led by Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France (12.6%) and England (12.4%) trail closely after France's gritty 2-1 victory over slumping Brazil—despite playing a man down—and England's 1-1 stalemate with Uruguay, highlighting the depth and resilience keeping this race bunched. With all favorites qualified post-March playoffs, favorable group draws, and Brazil's poor form (third loss in six), the 48-team field amplifies competitive dynamics among Europe's powerhouses and South American contenders like Argentina.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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