Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16% implied probability, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign atop Group E and the continued emergence of golden generation stars like Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri amid exceptional midfield depth. Recent European playoffs on March 26 saw Italy advance with a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland while Bosnia and Czechia progressed on penalties, solidifying the 48-team field without disrupting top contenders already locked in via group wins or CONMEBOL berths. England trails closely at 13% on squad depth and Nations League momentum, France at 11% fresh off a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil led by Kylian Mbappé, and defending champions Argentina at 10% banking on Lionel Messi's experience despite age concerns. This tight clustering reflects parity among elite talents, balanced group draws favoring Spain and Germany, and the knockout unpredictability of an expanded tournament across three host nations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.9%
Аргентина 10.1%
$400,948,332 Объем
$400,948,332 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Швейцария
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Испания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.9%
Аргентина 10.1%
$400,948,332 Объем
$400,948,332 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Швейцария
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16% implied probability, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign atop Group E and the continued emergence of golden generation stars like Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri amid exceptional midfield depth. Recent European playoffs on March 26 saw Italy advance with a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland while Bosnia and Czechia progressed on penalties, solidifying the 48-team field without disrupting top contenders already locked in via group wins or CONMEBOL berths. England trails closely at 13% on squad depth and Nations League momentum, France at 11% fresh off a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil led by Kylian Mbappé, and defending champions Argentina at 10% banking on Lionel Messi's experience despite age concerns. This tight clustering reflects parity among elite talents, balanced group draws favoring Spain and Germany, and the knockout unpredictability of an expanded tournament across three host nations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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