Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, bolstered by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph and flawless UEFA qualifying campaign topped by Rodri's midfield mastery and Lamine Yamal's emergence, while England and France share 12.4% on potent attacks led by Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé despite Nations League stumbles. Defending champions Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail amid Lionel Messi's advancing age and South American qualification grinds, with the expanded 48-team format, North American hosts' home advantages, and volatile group stage matchups fostering uncertainty—playoff resolutions like Bosnia and Sweden's advances in late March underscoring broad competitive depth across confederations and keeping the top outcomes tightly contested.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 16.4%
Англия 12.4%
Франция 12.4%
Аргентина 9.4%
$450,334,502 Объем
$450,334,502 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
12%
Франция
12%
Аргентина
9%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Япония
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Уругвай
1%
Швейцария
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Швеция
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Египет
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Иран
<1%
Панама
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Испания 16.4%
Англия 12.4%
Франция 12.4%
Аргентина 9.4%
$450,334,502 Объем
$450,334,502 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
12%
Франция
12%
Аргентина
9%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Япония
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Уругвай
1%
Швейцария
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Швеция
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Египет
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Иран
<1%
Панама
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, bolstered by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph and flawless UEFA qualifying campaign topped by Rodri's midfield mastery and Lamine Yamal's emergence, while England and France share 12.4% on potent attacks led by Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé despite Nations League stumbles. Defending champions Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail amid Lionel Messi's advancing age and South American qualification grinds, with the expanded 48-team format, North American hosts' home advantages, and volatile group stage matchups fostering uncertainty—playoff resolutions like Bosnia and Sweden's advances in late March underscoring broad competitive depth across confederations and keeping the top outcomes tightly contested.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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