Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign (five wins, one draw) capped by dominant March results like England's 5-0 rout of Latvia, alongside their Euro 2024 triumph and golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal. The race remains tightly contested among England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%), as all Pot 1 seeds qualified comfortably post-December group draw, but Brazil faces headwinds from Rodrygo's ACL injury and absences like Alisson and Gabriel. With the 48-team expanded format introducing deeper fields and upset potential, recent friendlies and fitness concerns underscore the competitive parity ahead of the North American-hosted tournament.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.9%
Аргентина 10.1%
$401,159,044 Объем
$401,159,044 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Швейцария
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Испания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.9%
Аргентина 10.1%
$401,159,044 Объем
$401,159,044 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Швейцария
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign (five wins, one draw) capped by dominant March results like England's 5-0 rout of Latvia, alongside their Euro 2024 triumph and golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal. The race remains tightly contested among England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%), as all Pot 1 seeds qualified comfortably post-December group draw, but Brazil faces headwinds from Rodrygo's ACL injury and absences like Alisson and Gabriel. With the 48-team expanded format introducing deeper fields and upset potential, recent friendlies and fitness concerns underscore the competitive parity ahead of the North American-hosted tournament.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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