Spain holds a narrow trader consensus edge at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA qualifiers, and favorable Group H draw featuring Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. England (12.8%), bolstered by Bellingham and Kane's form, France (10.8%) with Mbappé's explosiveness, and Argentina (9.9%) leaning on Messi's enduring influence trail tightly, reflecting deep European and South American talent pools amid recent Nations League successes and warm-up wins. Brazil (8.6%) faces transitional hurdles post-qualifiers, while the competitive bunching underscores the 48-team format's knockout volatility, youth surges like Yamal and Endrick, and lingering UEFA playoff outcomes through March 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.8%
Аргентина 9.9%
$407,495,443 Объем
$407,495,443 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Марокко
2%
США
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Швейцария
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Испания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.8%
Аргентина 9.9%
$407,495,443 Объем
$407,495,443 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
3%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Марокко
2%
США
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Мексика
1%
Эквадор
1%
Швейцария
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a narrow trader consensus edge at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA qualifiers, and favorable Group H draw featuring Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. England (12.8%), bolstered by Bellingham and Kane's form, France (10.8%) with Mbappé's explosiveness, and Argentina (9.9%) leaning on Messi's enduring influence trail tightly, reflecting deep European and South American talent pools amid recent Nations League successes and warm-up wins. Brazil (8.6%) faces transitional hurdles post-qualifiers, while the competitive bunching underscores the 48-team format's knockout volatility, youth surges like Yamal and Endrick, and lingering UEFA playoff outcomes through March 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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