OpenAI’s most recent major frontier release, GPT-5, arrived in August 2025 as a unified model combining reasoning and speed capabilities, with incremental updates such as the GPT-5.5 Instant refresh in late May 2026 focused on response quality. Current trader sentiment reflects steady iteration on the GPT-5 family rather than a near-term successor, amid competitive pressure from Microsoft’s new MAI models and ongoing internal shifts toward specialized tools like GPT-Rosalind. Key upcoming catalysts include further model sunsets of o3 and GPT-4.5 through August 2026 and any developer conference announcements that could signal accelerated timelines or capability milestones for the next-generation system.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
$23,918 Vol.
30 jun 2026
June 30
86%
September 30
97%
$23,918 Vol.
June 30
$7,438 Vol.
86%
September 30
$11,102 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s most recent major frontier release, GPT-5, arrived in August 2025 as a unified model combining reasoning and speed capabilities, with incremental updates such as the GPT-5.5 Instant refresh in late May 2026 focused on response quality. Current trader sentiment reflects steady iteration on the GPT-5 family rather than a near-term successor, amid competitive pressure from Microsoft’s new MAI models and ongoing internal shifts toward specialized tools like GPT-Rosalind. Key upcoming catalysts include further model sunsets of o3 and GPT-4.5 through August 2026 and any developer conference announcements that could signal accelerated timelines or capability milestones for the next-generation system.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$23,918Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s most recent major frontier release, GPT-5, arrived in August 2025 as a unified model combining reasoning and speed capabilities, with incremental updates such as the GPT-5.5 Instant refresh in late May 2026 focused on response quality. Current trader sentiment reflects steady iteration on the GPT-5 family rather than a near-term successor, amid competitive pressure from Microsoft’s new MAI models and ongoing internal shifts toward specialized tools like GPT-Rosalind. Key upcoming catalysts include further model sunsets of o3 and GPT-4.5 through August 2026 and any developer conference announcements that could signal accelerated timelines or capability milestones for the next-generation system.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,918Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s most recent major frontier release, GPT-5, arrived in August 2025 as a unified model combining reasoning and speed capabilities, with incremental updates such as the GPT-5.5 Instant refresh in late May 2026 focused on response quality. Current trader sentiment reflects steady iteration on the GPT-5 family rather than a near-term successor, amid competitive pressure from Microsoft’s new MAI models and ongoing internal shifts toward specialized tools like GPT-Rosalind. Key upcoming catalysts include further model sunsets of o3 and GPT-4.5 through August 2026 and any developer conference announcements that could signal accelerated timelines or capability milestones for the next-generation system.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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