Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in April precipitation for Seoul, with 75mm+ leading at 37% implied probability amid closely bunched outcomes around the historical average of 73mm from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) climatology (1991-2020). Recent KMA spring outlooks and JMA monthly discussions signal near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for southern East Asia, tempered by La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions (55-90% likelihood through spring per NOAA and IRI), which historically allows typical frontal passages delivering 8-10 rainy days. Model ensembles like ECMWF show spread in total accumulation due to variable low-pressure systems and cherry blossom-season instability; key differentiators include mid-month rain event frequency and intensity, with KMA weekly updates expected to refine trajectories as the month progresses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPrecipitation in Seoul in April?
Precipitation in Seoul in April?
75 mm+ 45%
<40mm 26%
50-55mm 21%
55-60mm 20%
<40mm
16%
40-45mm
16%
45-50mm
17%
50-55mm
25%
55-60mm
27%
60-65mm
26%
65-70mm
24%
70-75mm
26%
75 mm+
40%
75 mm+ 45%
<40mm 26%
50-55mm 21%
55-60mm 20%
<40mm
16%
40-45mm
16%
45-50mm
17%
50-55mm
25%
55-60mm
27%
60-65mm
26%
65-70mm
24%
70-75mm
26%
75 mm+
40%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in April precipitation for Seoul, with 75mm+ leading at 37% implied probability amid closely bunched outcomes around the historical average of 73mm from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) climatology (1991-2020). Recent KMA spring outlooks and JMA monthly discussions signal near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for southern East Asia, tempered by La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions (55-90% likelihood through spring per NOAA and IRI), which historically allows typical frontal passages delivering 8-10 rainy days. Model ensembles like ECMWF show spread in total accumulation due to variable low-pressure systems and cherry blossom-season instability; key differentiators include mid-month rain event frequency and intensity, with KMA weekly updates expected to refine trajectories as the month progresses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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