Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.4% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary stems from his entrenched position since 2009, robust fundraising with nearly $6 million raised by late 2025, and a thin field after the March 10 non-incumbent filing deadline. Jacob Ryan holds 2.6% trader consensus despite withdrawing, while retired engineer Paul D. Wells remains the sole low-profile challenger, echoing Merkley's uncontested 2020 primary. No polls exist, but historical incumbency success in safe Democratic primaries drives the lopsided odds ahead of the May 19 vote. Upsets would require a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected Wells surge via mail-in ballots, though structural barriers favor Merkley decisively.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$16,442 Vol.
$16,442 Vol.
Jeff Merkley
98%
Jacob Ryan
2%
$16,442 Vol.
$16,442 Vol.
Jeff Merkley
98%
Jacob Ryan
2%
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.4% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary stems from his entrenched position since 2009, robust fundraising with nearly $6 million raised by late 2025, and a thin field after the March 10 non-incumbent filing deadline. Jacob Ryan holds 2.6% trader consensus despite withdrawing, while retired engineer Paul D. Wells remains the sole low-profile challenger, echoing Merkley's uncontested 2020 primary. No polls exist, but historical incumbency success in safe Democratic primaries drives the lopsided odds ahead of the May 19 vote. Upsets would require a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected Wells surge via mail-in ballots, though structural barriers favor Merkley decisively.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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