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Política·GELO

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Market icon
Política·GELO

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Derek Merrin 56%

Josh Williams 15.0%

Madison Sheahan 15%

Alea Nadeem 14.8%

Polymarket
NOVO

Derek Merrin 56%

Josh Williams 15.0%

Madison Sheahan 15%

Alea Nadeem 14.8%

Polymarket
NOVO

Derek Merrin

$2,661 Vol.

56%

Josh Williams

$699 Vol.

15%

Madison Sheahan

$1,866 Vol.

15%

Alea Nadeem

$725 Vol.

15%

Jacob Frost

$547 Vol.

2%

Anthony Campbell

$428 Vol.

1%

Wayne Kinsel

$351 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's trader consensus lead at 56.5% in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his name recognition as the 2024 nominee who narrowly lost to incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, bolstered by top fundraising with $356,000 cash on hand through late 2025 and eight years as an Ohio state representative. Recent straw polls at the Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum showed state Rep. Josh Williams surging from 109 to 155 votes post-debate, boosting his 12.7% odds amid calls for joint debates that frontrunners Merrin and Madison Sheahan have sidestepped. Sheahan's 15% reflects her Maggie's List endorsement and ICE deputy director experience, tempered by Lucas County GOP residency requirements excluding her from local backing, while Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem holds 14.4% on strong cash reserves. With the May 5 primary approaching, no public polls exist, but traders weigh these catalysts in the toss-up district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,277
Data de Término
5 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's trader consensus lead at 56.5% in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his name recognition as the 2024 nominee who narrowly lost to incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, bolstered by top fundraising with $356,000 cash on hand through late 2025 and eight years as an Ohio state representative. Recent straw polls at the Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum showed state Rep. Josh Williams surging from 109 to 155 votes post-debate, boosting his 12.7% odds amid calls for joint debates that frontrunners Merrin and Madison Sheahan have sidestepped. Sheahan's 15% reflects her Maggie's List endorsement and ICE deputy director experience, tempered by Lucas County GOP residency requirements excluding her from local backing, while Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem holds 14.4% on strong cash reserves. With the May 5 primary approaching, no public polls exist, but traders weigh these catalysts in the toss-up district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,277
Data de Término
5 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 56%, followed by "Josh Williams" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Derek Merrin" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Josh Williams" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.