Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$36,461 Vol.
$36,461 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$36,461 Vol.
$36,461 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$15,719 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$20,742 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$36,461Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,461Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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