The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Robin Kelly pursued a Senate bid, leading to a crowded March primary won by Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller; her nomination in this safely Democratic Chicago-area district, which includes parts of the South Side and southern suburbs, aligns with historical patterns where the Democratic nominee has prevailed by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has routinely exceeded 65 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-02 Vencedor da Eleição da Casa
IL-02 Vencedor da Eleição da Casa
$30,932 Vol.
$30,932 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
4%
$30,932 Vol.
$30,932 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$12,427 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$18,505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Robin Kelly pursued a Senate bid, leading to a crowded March primary won by Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller; her nomination in this safely Democratic Chicago-area district, which includes parts of the South Side and southern suburbs, aligns with historical patterns where the Democratic nominee has prevailed by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has routinely exceeded 65 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$30,932Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Robin Kelly pursued a Senate bid, leading to a crowded March primary won by Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller; her nomination in this safely Democratic Chicago-area district, which includes parts of the South Side and southern suburbs, aligns with historical patterns where the Democratic nominee has prevailed by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has routinely exceeded 65 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,932Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Robin Kelly pursued a Senate bid, leading to a crowded March primary won by Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller; her nomination in this safely Democratic Chicago-area district, which includes parts of the South Side and southern suburbs, aligns with historical patterns where the Democratic nominee has prevailed by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has routinely exceeded 65 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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