Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+13, drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$429,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus under $10,000 for primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway—and history of double-digit general election victories, including 61% in 2024. The May 19 Republican primary poses minimal threat given Simpson's past wins over similar conservative critics, while the Democratic primary features underfunded contenders Julie Wiley and Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, late scandal, health issues, or an improbable Democratic surge tied to national midterm trends, though structural district advantages make upsets rare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoID-02 Vencedor da eleição da casa
ID-02 Vencedor da eleição da casa
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Democrata
9%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
92%
Partido Democrata
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+13, drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$429,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus under $10,000 for primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway—and history of double-digit general election victories, including 61% in 2024. The May 19 Republican primary poses minimal threat given Simpson's past wins over similar conservative critics, while the Democratic primary features underfunded contenders Julie Wiley and Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, late scandal, health issues, or an improbable Democratic surge tied to national midterm trends, though structural district advantages make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+13, drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$429,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus under $10,000 for primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway—and history of double-digit general election victories, including 61% in 2024. The May 19 Republican primary poses minimal threat given Simpson's past wins over similar conservative critics, while the Democratic primary features underfunded contenders Julie Wiley and Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, late scandal, health issues, or an improbable Democratic surge tied to national midterm trends, though structural district advantages make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+13, drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$429,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus under $10,000 for primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway—and history of double-digit general election victories, including 61% in 2024. The May 19 Republican primary poses minimal threat given Simpson's past wins over similar conservative critics, while the Democratic primary features underfunded contenders Julie Wiley and Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, late scandal, health issues, or an improbable Democratic surge tied to national midterm trends, though structural district advantages make upsets rare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions