Mexico's co-host status and home fixtures at Estadio Azteca anchor the 52% implied probability as group favorites, with the tournament opener against South Africa and additional matches in Guadalajara and Monterrey offering clear scheduling edges. Czechia and South Korea sit close behind at roughly 20-21% each, reflecting their established international experience and recent qualification successes, including Czechia's playoff path through UEFA. South Africa trails at under 6%, consistent with its lower FIFA ranking and limited recent global results despite occasional historical upsets. With the group stage beginning June 11, market pricing captures the wisdom of crowds assessing roster depth, recent form, and the expanded 48-team format's advancement pathways before any matches kick off.