Mercedes' commanding practice pace at Suzuka, with George Russell topping FP2 and Lewis Hamilton close behind, anchors trader consensus at 66.5% for the Silver Arrows to claim the first points via race lead at the Japanese Grand Prix. Ferrari's consistent front-row threat, led by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz's strong long-run simulations, sustains their 33% implied probability amid Red Bull's minor setup tweaks post-FP2. Lower-tier odds for Racing Bulls, Haas, and Alpine reflect midfield pack battles, while Red Bull (7%) and McLaren (6%) face scrutiny over qualifying simulations and tire management on the high-speed Suzuka layout, where historical Mercedes straightline speed edges rivals. Recent rain-affected FP1 adds uncertainty to dry-race projections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMercedes 66%
Ferrari 43%
Racing Bulls 18%
Tgr Haas 17%
Mercedes
66%
Ferrari
33%
Racing Bulls
18%
Tgr Haas
17%
Alpine
16%
Audi Revolut
11%
Red Bull
7%
Mclaren Mastercard
6%
Cadillac
4%
Williams
1%
Aston Martin
1%
Mercedes 66%
Ferrari 43%
Racing Bulls 18%
Tgr Haas 17%
Mercedes
66%
Ferrari
33%
Racing Bulls
18%
Tgr Haas
17%
Alpine
16%
Audi Revolut
11%
Red Bull
7%
Mclaren Mastercard
6%
Cadillac
4%
Williams
1%
Aston Martin
1%
In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 8:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' commanding practice pace at Suzuka, with George Russell topping FP2 and Lewis Hamilton close behind, anchors trader consensus at 66.5% for the Silver Arrows to claim the first points via race lead at the Japanese Grand Prix. Ferrari's consistent front-row threat, led by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz's strong long-run simulations, sustains their 33% implied probability amid Red Bull's minor setup tweaks post-FP2. Lower-tier odds for Racing Bulls, Haas, and Alpine reflect midfield pack battles, while Red Bull (7%) and McLaren (6%) face scrutiny over qualifying simulations and tire management on the high-speed Suzuka layout, where historical Mercedes straightline speed edges rivals. Recent rain-affected FP1 adds uncertainty to dry-race projections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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