Mercedes tops trader consensus at 66% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position, driven by standout practice pace from Lewis Hamilton and George Russell in FP2 and FP3 at Suzuka, where Mercedes topped sector times in high-speed corners favoring their upgraded aero package. Red Bull's 38% reflects Max Verstappen's qualifying mastery and team sweep in recent Australia and China poles, though minor setup tweaks post-FP1 tempered enthusiasm. Ferrari (33.5%) and Williams (32.2%) gain from Charles Leclerc's long-run speed and Alex Albon's surprise low-fuel simulations, while McLaren (30.5%) rides Lando Norris' momentum despite minor reliability flags. Recent track evolution and cooler qualifying conditions add uncertainty to these tightly clustered top odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoRed Bull 39%
Ferrari 34%
Williams 31.7%
Mclaren Mastercard 31%
Red Bull
39%
Ferrari
34%
Williams
32%
Mclaren Mastercard
31%
Racing Bulls
30%
Audi Revolut
10%
Aston Martin
6%
Cadillac
4%
Tgr Haas
3%
Alpine
2%
Mercedes
66%
Red Bull 39%
Ferrari 34%
Williams 31.7%
Mclaren Mastercard 31%
Red Bull
39%
Ferrari
34%
Williams
32%
Mclaren Mastercard
31%
Racing Bulls
30%
Audi Revolut
10%
Aston Martin
6%
Cadillac
4%
Tgr Haas
3%
Alpine
2%
Mercedes
66%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes tops trader consensus at 66% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position, driven by standout practice pace from Lewis Hamilton and George Russell in FP2 and FP3 at Suzuka, where Mercedes topped sector times in high-speed corners favoring their upgraded aero package. Red Bull's 38% reflects Max Verstappen's qualifying mastery and team sweep in recent Australia and China poles, though minor setup tweaks post-FP1 tempered enthusiasm. Ferrari (33.5%) and Williams (32.2%) gain from Charles Leclerc's long-run speed and Alex Albon's surprise low-fuel simulations, while McLaren (30.5%) rides Lando Norris' momentum despite minor reliability flags. Recent track evolution and cooler qualifying conditions add uncertainty to these tightly clustered top odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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