Trader consensus pins Michigan at a slim 20.5% implied probability to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament, just ahead of Arizona (19.7%) and Duke (16.5%), reflecting offseason parity fueled by the transfer portal's chaos and recruiting arms race. Dusty May's Wolverines lead via the No. 2-ranked 2025-26 class (per 247Sports), featuring five-star Trey McKenney and depth around returners like Vladislav Goldin, positioning them for Big Ten dominance. Arizona's Tommy Lloyd counters with portal hauls like Jalen Bridges and elite signee Koa Peat, while Duke's Jon Scheyer boasts perennial blue-chip influxes amid ACC depth. No runaway favorite emerges amid NIL flips, injuries, and conference realignments, keeping the race volatile.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMichigan 21%
Arizona 19.7%
Duke 17%
Flórida 8.9%
$21,526,648 Vol.
$21,526,648 Vol.
Michigan
21%
Arizona
20%
Duke
17%
Flórida
9%
Houston
9%
Illinois
4%
Iowa State
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
3%
Michigan State
3%
Arkansas
2%
St. John's
2%
Vanderbilt
1%
Texas
1%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Tennessee
1%
Gonzaga
1%
Virgínia
1%
Nebraska
1%
Alabama
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
VCU
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Michigan 21%
Arizona 19.7%
Duke 17%
Flórida 8.9%
$21,526,648 Vol.
$21,526,648 Vol.
Michigan
21%
Arizona
20%
Duke
17%
Flórida
9%
Houston
9%
Illinois
4%
Iowa State
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
3%
Michigan State
3%
Arkansas
2%
St. John's
2%
Vanderbilt
1%
Texas
1%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Tennessee
1%
Gonzaga
1%
Virgínia
1%
Nebraska
1%
Alabama
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
VCU
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Utah State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus pins Michigan at a slim 20.5% implied probability to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament, just ahead of Arizona (19.7%) and Duke (16.5%), reflecting offseason parity fueled by the transfer portal's chaos and recruiting arms race. Dusty May's Wolverines lead via the No. 2-ranked 2025-26 class (per 247Sports), featuring five-star Trey McKenney and depth around returners like Vladislav Goldin, positioning them for Big Ten dominance. Arizona's Tommy Lloyd counters with portal hauls like Jalen Bridges and elite signee Koa Peat, while Duke's Jon Scheyer boasts perennial blue-chip influxes amid ACC depth. No runaway favorite emerges amid NIL flips, injuries, and conference realignments, keeping the race volatile.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions