Arizona leads 2026 NCAA Tournament futures at 19.8% implied probability, but Michigan (18.5%) and Duke (17.5%) trail closely due to standout recruiting hauls and transfer portal gains bolstering their 2025-26 rosters. Michigan's hiring of Dusty May, fresh off Final Four success at FAU, injects proven coaching amid returning core like Nolan Essengue, fueling trader optimism. Duke's elite class headlined by No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg promises star power, while Arizona's depth from five-star signee Joson Sanon and portal additions like Carter Bryant maintains their edge. Florida (9.4%) gains from recent momentum, but parity in talent pipelines and early offseason parity keeps the top bunch compressed, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in this distant market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoArizona 19.8%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Flórida 9.4%
$21,581,639 Vol.
$21,581,639 Vol.
Arizona
20%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Flórida
9%
Houston
7%
Iowa State
4%
Purdue
4%
Illinois
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
2%
Michigan State
2%
St. John's
2%
Gonzaga
2%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virgínia
1%
Alabama
1%
Louisville
<1%
Nebraska
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
VCU
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
Texas
<1%
Arizona 19.8%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Flórida 9.4%
$21,581,639 Vol.
$21,581,639 Vol.
Arizona
20%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Flórida
9%
Houston
7%
Iowa State
4%
Purdue
4%
Illinois
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
2%
Michigan State
2%
St. John's
2%
Gonzaga
2%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virgínia
1%
Alabama
1%
Louisville
<1%
Nebraska
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
VCU
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
Texas
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona leads 2026 NCAA Tournament futures at 19.8% implied probability, but Michigan (18.5%) and Duke (17.5%) trail closely due to standout recruiting hauls and transfer portal gains bolstering their 2025-26 rosters. Michigan's hiring of Dusty May, fresh off Final Four success at FAU, injects proven coaching amid returning core like Nolan Essengue, fueling trader optimism. Duke's elite class headlined by No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg promises star power, while Arizona's depth from five-star signee Joson Sanon and portal additions like Carter Bryant maintains their edge. Florida (9.4%) gains from recent momentum, but parity in talent pipelines and early offseason parity keeps the top bunch compressed, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in this distant market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions