Trader consensus on the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner shows Michigan, Arizona, and Duke tightly bunched at 20.5%, 19.4%, and 16.5%, reflecting high parity from elite recruiting classes and coaching momentum amid roster volatility. Michigan's surge stems from Dusty May's hire and a top-five 2026 class featuring five-star guards, while Arizona leverages Tommy Lloyd's portal savvy and returning core, and Duke banks on Jon Scheyer's perennial blue-chip hauls. Florida and Houston trail closely on recent Final Four runs and defensive identities, but the transfer portal, NIL bidding wars, and uncertain NBA departures keep probabilities fluid, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing distant futures where upsets and momentum shifts dominate college hoops.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMichigan 20%
Arizona 19.2%
Duke 17%
Flórida 9.7%
$21,933,060 Vol.
$21,933,060 Vol.
Michigan
20%
Arizona
19%
Duke
17%
Flórida
10%
Houston
8%
Purdue
5%
Illinois
4%
Iowa State
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
3%
Michigan State
2%
St. John's
2%
Tennessee
1%
Kansas
1%
UCLA
1%
Nebraska
1%
Virgínia
1%
Texas
1%
Alabama
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Michigan 20%
Arizona 19.2%
Duke 17%
Flórida 9.7%
$21,933,060 Vol.
$21,933,060 Vol.
Michigan
20%
Arizona
19%
Duke
17%
Flórida
10%
Houston
8%
Purdue
5%
Illinois
4%
Iowa State
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
3%
Michigan State
2%
St. John's
2%
Tennessee
1%
Kansas
1%
UCLA
1%
Nebraska
1%
Virgínia
1%
Texas
1%
Alabama
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Utah State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner shows Michigan, Arizona, and Duke tightly bunched at 20.5%, 19.4%, and 16.5%, reflecting high parity from elite recruiting classes and coaching momentum amid roster volatility. Michigan's surge stems from Dusty May's hire and a top-five 2026 class featuring five-star guards, while Arizona leverages Tommy Lloyd's portal savvy and returning core, and Duke banks on Jon Scheyer's perennial blue-chip hauls. Florida and Houston trail closely on recent Final Four runs and defensive identities, but the transfer portal, NIL bidding wars, and uncertain NBA departures keep probabilities fluid, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing distant futures where upsets and momentum shifts dominate college hoops.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions