Trader consensus clusters around Arizona, Michigan, and Duke as co-favorites for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title, with implied probabilities tightly bunched under 20% due to their elite 2025 recruiting classes loaded with top-10 national prospects like Arizona's Dwayne Aristode and Michigan's Durral Brooks alongside proven transfers. This parity stems from the transfer portal's leveling effect, distributing NBA-caliber talent across programs, while no single roster dominates amid uncertainties in freshman adaptation, injury risks, and conference realignments like Arizona's Big 12 shift. Recent November signing-period commitments have fueled optimism for these three, but historical March Madness volatility—evident in last year's upsets—keeps the field wide open, capping any frontrunner's edge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoArizona 19.8%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Flórida 9.3%
$21,653,147 Vol.
$21,653,147 Vol.
Arizona
20%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Flórida
9%
Houston
7%
Purdue
5%
Iowa State
4%
Illinois
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
2%
Michigan State
2%
St. John's
2%
Gonzaga
2%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virgínia
1%
Alabama
1%
Louisville
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Nebraska
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
VCU
<1%
Texas
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Arizona 19.8%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Flórida 9.3%
$21,653,147 Vol.
$21,653,147 Vol.
Arizona
20%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Flórida
9%
Houston
7%
Purdue
5%
Iowa State
4%
Illinois
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
2%
Michigan State
2%
St. John's
2%
Gonzaga
2%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virgínia
1%
Alabama
1%
Louisville
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Nebraska
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
VCU
<1%
Texas
<1%
Utah State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around Arizona, Michigan, and Duke as co-favorites for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title, with implied probabilities tightly bunched under 20% due to their elite 2025 recruiting classes loaded with top-10 national prospects like Arizona's Dwayne Aristode and Michigan's Durral Brooks alongside proven transfers. This parity stems from the transfer portal's leveling effect, distributing NBA-caliber talent across programs, while no single roster dominates amid uncertainties in freshman adaptation, injury risks, and conference realignments like Arizona's Big 12 shift. Recent November signing-period commitments have fueled optimism for these three, but historical March Madness volatility—evident in last year's upsets—keeps the field wide open, capping any frontrunner's edge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions