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Desporto·Xadrez

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner

Market icon
Desporto·Xadrez

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner

Fabiano Caruana 30%

Hikaru Nakamura 21%

Javokhir Sindarov 15%

Praggnanandhaa R 12%

Polymarket

$787,507 Vol.

Fabiano Caruana 30%

Hikaru Nakamura 21%

Javokhir Sindarov 15%

Praggnanandhaa R 12%

Polymarket

$787,507 Vol.

Fabiano Caruana

$31,823 Vol.

30%

Hikaru Nakamura

$72,805 Vol.

21%

Javokhir Sindarov

$29,633 Vol.

15%

Praggnanandhaa R

$35,111 Vol.

12%

Wei Yi

$124,308 Vol.

10%

Anish Giri

$46,405 Vol.

10%

Andrey Esipenko

$382,803 Vol.

4%

Matthias Bluebaum

$64,620 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$787,507
Data de Término
Apr 17, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 29.5% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reflecting his top classical Elo rating near 2804 and runner-up finish in the 2024 edition, underscoring his stamina in grueling double-round-robin format. Hikaru Nakamura sits at 20.5% after capturing the Saint Louis Blitz title in September 2024, bolstering his reputation for tactical sharpness and adaptability across time controls. Young guns Javokhir Sindarov (14.5%) and Praggnanandhaa R (11.5%) draw support from breakout Olympiad 2024 performances—Sindarov's Uzbekistan silver and Praggnanandhaa's Indian team gold—highlighting their aggressive styles amid an unresolved qualification cycle via FIDE Circuit points, rating list, and major event victories. The sub-30% spread signals a competitive field vulnerable to form swings and preparation edges.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fabiano Caruana" at 30%, followed by "Hikaru Nakamura" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" has generated $787.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" is "Fabiano Caruana" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hikaru Nakamura" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.