Traders assign a 94% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, consistent with the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations and the lack of any official statements, health disclosures, or institutional pressures indicating an early exit during his second term. Trump has focused on core agenda items such as immigration enforcement, trade policy, and executive actions, with continued engagement in legislative and diplomatic matters through mid-2026. No major scandals, court rulings, or congressional developments have emerged to alter this trajectory. While unforeseen events like health issues could still shift outcomes, the current political environment and incumbency patterns support the market's strong consensus against resignation in the near term.