Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025, a measure projected by the Congressional Budget Office and other forecasters to push the next potential breach into 2027 or later under current spending and revenue paths. Lawmakers in both parties have consistently adjusted or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically rather than allow a payment default on obligations such as Treasury interest, Social Security, and military pay. With the current ceiling providing substantial headroom as of mid-2026, trader consensus reflected in the 94.8 percent “No” price incorporates the low probability of a political impasse severe enough to trigger default within the remaining window, though late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks could still alter that assessment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,053 Wol.
$15,053 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,053 Wol.
$15,053 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025, a measure projected by the Congressional Budget Office and other forecasters to push the next potential breach into 2027 or later under current spending and revenue paths. Lawmakers in both parties have consistently adjusted or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically rather than allow a payment default on obligations such as Treasury interest, Social Security, and military pay. With the current ceiling providing substantial headroom as of mid-2026, trader consensus reflected in the 94.8 percent “No” price incorporates the low probability of a political impasse severe enough to trigger default within the remaining window, though late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks could still alter that assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,053Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025, a measure projected by the Congressional Budget Office and other forecasters to push the next potential breach into 2027 or later under current spending and revenue paths. Lawmakers in both parties have consistently adjusted or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically rather than allow a payment default on obligations such as Treasury interest, Social Security, and military pay. With the current ceiling providing substantial headroom as of mid-2026, trader consensus reflected in the 94.8 percent “No” price incorporates the low probability of a political impasse severe enough to trigger default within the remaining window, though late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks could still alter that assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$15,053Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025, a measure projected by the Congressional Budget Office and other forecasters to push the next potential breach into 2027 or later under current spending and revenue paths. Lawmakers in both parties have consistently adjusted or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically rather than allow a payment default on obligations such as Treasury interest, Social Security, and military pay. With the current ceiling providing substantial headroom as of mid-2026, trader consensus reflected in the 94.8 percent “No” price incorporates the low probability of a political impasse severe enough to trigger default within the remaining window, though late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks could still alter that assessment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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