Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—highlighting contested sentiment amid sticky inflation and Fed restraint. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, tempering rate-cut hopes despite the index's recent rally to a 7,126 close on April 17. Q1 earnings growth is pegged at 13.2% year-over-year, supporting analyst targets of 7,200-7,600 from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, but elevated valuations amplify risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q1 reports and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$6,000-$6,500 13%
$19,269 Wol.
$19,269 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
13%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
12%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$6,000-$6,500 13%
$19,269 Wol.
$19,269 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,578 Wol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Wol.
13%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,969 Wol.
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Wol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Wol.
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—highlighting contested sentiment amid sticky inflation and Fed restraint. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, tempering rate-cut hopes despite the index's recent rally to a 7,126 close on April 17. Q1 earnings growth is pegged at 13.2% year-over-year, supporting analyst targets of 7,200-7,600 from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, but elevated valuations amplify risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q1 reports and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$19,269Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—highlighting contested sentiment amid sticky inflation and Fed restraint. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, tempering rate-cut hopes despite the index's recent rally to a 7,126 close on April 17. Q1 earnings growth is pegged at 13.2% year-over-year, supporting analyst targets of 7,200-7,600 from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, but elevated valuations amplify risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q1 reports and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Wolumen
$19,269Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—highlighting contested sentiment amid sticky inflation and Fed restraint. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, tempering rate-cut hopes despite the index's recent rally to a 7,126 close on April 17. Q1 earnings growth is pegged at 13.2% year-over-year, supporting analyst targets of 7,200-7,600 from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, but elevated valuations amplify risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q1 reports and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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