Strong Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year, with 89% of reporting companies beating estimates and record blended net profit margins at 13.4%, propelled the index to a fresh closing high of 7,399 on May 8, fueling the 27.5% implied probability for a year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range. However, closely contested odds for $6,000-$6,500 (22.5%) and below $6,000 (22%) reflect trader concerns over resurgent inflation—March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4%—and the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate of 3.50%-3.75% amid subdued 2.0% Q1 GDP growth. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could sway rate cut expectations and break the deadlock on sustained upside versus a valuation pullback.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
$7,000-$7,500 29%
<$6,000 16%
$7,500-$8,000 16%
$6,000-$6,500 15%
$24,809 Wol.
$24,809 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
16%
$6,000-$6,500
25%
$6,500-$7,000
27%
$7,000-$7,500
29%
$7,500-$8,000
16%
>$8,000
12%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
<$6,000 16%
$7,500-$8,000 16%
$6,000-$6,500 15%
$24,809 Wol.
$24,809 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$15,511 Wol.
16%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,429 Wol.
25%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,389 Wol.
27%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Wol.
29%
$7,500-$8,000
$2,074 Wol.
16%
>$8,000
$2,293 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year, with 89% of reporting companies beating estimates and record blended net profit margins at 13.4%, propelled the index to a fresh closing high of 7,399 on May 8, fueling the 27.5% implied probability for a year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range. However, closely contested odds for $6,000-$6,500 (22.5%) and below $6,000 (22%) reflect trader concerns over resurgent inflation—March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4%—and the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate of 3.50%-3.75% amid subdued 2.0% Q1 GDP growth. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could sway rate cut expectations and break the deadlock on sustained upside versus a valuation pullback.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$24,809Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year, with 89% of reporting companies beating estimates and record blended net profit margins at 13.4%, propelled the index to a fresh closing high of 7,399 on May 8, fueling the 27.5% implied probability for a year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range. However, closely contested odds for $6,000-$6,500 (22.5%) and below $6,000 (22%) reflect trader concerns over resurgent inflation—March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4%—and the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate of 3.50%-3.75% amid subdued 2.0% Q1 GDP growth. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could sway rate cut expectations and break the deadlock on sustained upside versus a valuation pullback.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Wolumen
$24,809Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year, with 89% of reporting companies beating estimates and record blended net profit margins at 13.4%, propelled the index to a fresh closing high of 7,399 on May 8, fueling the 27.5% implied probability for a year-end close in the $7,000-$7,500 range. However, closely contested odds for $6,000-$6,500 (22.5%) and below $6,000 (22%) reflect trader concerns over resurgent inflation—March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4%—and the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate of 3.50%-3.75% amid subdued 2.0% Q1 GDP growth. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could sway rate cut expectations and break the deadlock on sustained upside versus a valuation pullback.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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