Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 21%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.0%
$13,904 Wol.
$13,904 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
21%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 21%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.0%
$13,904 Wol.
$13,904 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Wol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 Wol.
21%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 Wol.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,601 Wol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Wol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$13,904Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$13,904Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania