Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 60%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 Wol.
$26,701 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
53%
>2.5% 60%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 Wol.
$26,701 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 Wol.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 Wol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 Wol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 Wol.
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 Wol.
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 Wol.
53%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$26,701Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$26,701Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, closely tracking the FOMC's March median projection of 2.4% (range 2.1%-2.7%, up from December's 2.3%) and IMF's April forecast of 2.4%, amid resilient labor conditions and expected monetary easing. Recent downward revisions—Q4 2025 GDP to 0.5% annualized (April 9 BEA third estimate) and Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast steady at 1.3%—have fragmented sentiment toward lower buckets like <0.5% (10.1%), fueled by tariff-induced inflation and firmer energy prices prompting Vanguard's downgrade to 2.3%. The Q1 advance estimate due April 30 remains a key catalyst for repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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